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EBOOK
Author Unalmis, Deren,
Title On the sources and consequences of oil price shocks : the role of storage / Deren Unalmis, Ibrahim Unalmis, and D. Filiz Unsal.
Imprint [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, 2012.

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Author Unalmis, Deren,
Series IMF working paper ; WP/12/270
IMF working paper ; WP/12/270.
Subject Petroleum products -- Prices -- Econometric models.
Petroleum products -- Storage.
Alt Name Unalmis, Ibrahim,
Unsal, D. Filiz,
International Monetary Fund. Research Department,
Description 1 online resource (41 pages) : illustrations.
Bibliography
Note Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed Nov. 26, 2012).
"Research Department"--Page 2 of pdf.
"November 2012"--Page 2 of pdf.
Summary "Building on recent work on the role of speculation and inventories in oil markets, we embed a competitive oil storage model within a DSGE model of the U.S. economy. This enables us to formally analyze the impact of a (speculative) storage demand shock and to assess how the effects of various demand and supply shocks change in the presence of oil storage facility. We find that business-cycle driven oil demand shocks are the most important drivers of U.S. oil price fluctuations during 1982-2007. Disregarding the storage facility in the model causes a considerable upward bias in the estimated role of oil supply shocks in driving oil price fluctuations. Our results also confirm that a change in the composition of shocks helps explain the resilience of the macroeconomic environment to the oil price surge after 2003. Finally, speculative storage is shown to have a mitigating or amplifying role depending on the nature of the shock"--Abstract.
Bibliography Note Includes bibliographical references (pages 22-25).
Contents Cover; Contents; 1. Introduction; 2. The Model; 2.1 Households; 2.2 Firms and Production; 2.3 Monetary and Fiscal Policy; 2.4 Goods Market Equilibrium; 2.5 Storage and Oil Market Equilibrium; 3. Estimation; 3.1 Data; 3.2 Calibrated Parameters; 3.3 Prior Distributions and Estimation Results; 4. Conclusion; References; Appendix; Tables; 1. Calibrated parameters; 2. Prior distributions and posterior estimates (sample period: 1982Q1-2007Q4); 3. Variance decomposition (sample period: 1982Q1-2007Q4); 4. Variance decomposition (sample period: 2000Q1-2007Q4); Figures.
1. Impulse responses to a one standard deviation positive TFP shock2. Impulse responses to a one standard deviation positive labor productivity shock; 3. Impulse responses to a one standard deviation negative oil supply shock; 4. Impulse responses to a one standard deviation storage demand shock; 5. Impulse responses to a one standard deviation positive TFP shock with and without storage; 6. Impulse responses to a one standard deviation positive labor productivity shock with and without storage; 7. Impulse responses to a one standard deviation negative oil supplywith and without storage.
ISBN 9781475573565 (electronic bk.)
1475573561 (electronic bk.)
9781475598438 (ebook)
1475598432 (ebook)
9781475586367
OCLC # 819351871



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